Edmonton Oilers

Picks

We generally see opportunistic finishing from Wyatt Johnston and going up against an inconsistent Stuart Skinner — who has allowed four goals or more in four of six starts these playoffs — should help him get back on track sooner rather than later. It’s also worth noting Johnston, who also has a great playoff track record, has scored in five of his last eight against Edmonton dating back to last year’s postseason.

McDavid recorded seven shot attempts, five scoring chances, and four shots on target in the series opener against Dallas. It didn’t matter that a powerhouse Stars team could control the matchups and get their best against McDavid; he still had plenty of looks. I expect a determined McDavid will have his fair share again in Game 2 and, with any luck, make at least one count.

Mikko Rantanen was relatively quiet with just one assist in Game 1, though the towering winger threw at least three shots on net for the third straight contest — a trend I’m expecting to hold in Game 2. Rantanen ranks first among all Stars skaters with 42 shots this postseason, which translates to exactly three per game. "The Moose" is also racking up more than 16 shot attempts per 60 minutes in these playoffs per Natural Stat Trick, second on Dallas behind only Miro Heiskanen (16.97). The Stars did most of their damage on the power play in Game 1 as they scored three times on four man advantage opportunities — something that Rantanen can capitalize on in Game 2. The Finnish forward ranks tied for sixth in power play shots (11) and shot attempts (21) among all skaters this postseason so he should get plenty of looks if the Oilers are undisciplined again.

The Edmonton Oilers do a tremendous job generating scoring chances, and Jake Oettinger has the ability to stop them. He enters this matchup in excellent form. Oettinger is 9-4 over the past 13 games with a .922 SV% and 2.39 GAA. He is averaging more than 28 saves per game over that stretch. On the other hand, the Oilers have no issues firing the puck. They finished the regular season ranked first in the league in shots on goal per game, with 32.

Edmonton’s leader in both goals and shots this season, Leon Draisaitl has recorded four or more shots on goal in each of the past two games. He’s never afraid to shoot, especially this postseason. In the playoffs, Draisaitl is averaging 8.17 shots on goal per 60 minutes and 16.33 shot attempts per 60 minutes. The Stars, meanwhile, have a tendency to allow shots on net. During the regular season, they ranked 23rd in shots on goal allowed per game.

Mikko Rantanen leads all skaters in these playoffs with nine goals. There’s nothing not to like about Rantanen’s performance thus far. He has shown a willingness to shoot and find high-danger scoring areas. Furthermore, goaltender Stuart Skinner gets the start for the Oilers. He allowed five goals on 27 shots in Game 1 for a .815 SV%. Rantanen has scored 11 goals across his past 20 meetings against Edmonton.

Oilers drove five-on-five possession with a 55.5 Corsi For percentage and won the expected-goals battle at 59% clip in Game 1. Edmonton also held a 3-1 lead going into the third period before surrendering five unanswered to the Dallas Stars. I’m not overreacting to a sloppy final frame from the Oil. Dallas scored three times with the man advantage and added an empty-net goal. The Edmonton offense was solid, too. Connor McDavid’s line with Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins finished with a 75.0 CF% and 84.4 xGF% at 5-on-5, while Leon Draisaitl also drove possession with a 61.3 CF% despite having a carousel of wingers on his flanks.