MLB Picks

The Pirates haven’t scored more than two runs in a game Keller has started since May 2, a stretch of nine starts that includes a 2-1 loss to the Mets back on May 13.

Soto has caught fire to lead the majors in OPS (1.245) across his past 26 games while piling up 26 runs, 29 hits and 20 RBI. He’s hit the Over in this market in 16 of 26, too, and will face Pittsburgh Pirates righty MItch Keller on Friday. Keller has surrendered a .265 batting average and .339 wOBA to left-handed hitters over the past three years while sporting a 4.72 ERA, and Soto also ranks third in wOBA, ISO and OPS against right-handed pitchers since the beginning of the 2023 campaign.

The Rays are among the hottest things going right now, winners of three straight and seven of their last 10. They'll have the pitching advantage here with Pepiot taking on Sugano, and their offense has been dialed in for June. The O's are just sputtering along and have scored 13 runs across their last six games. Give me the hotter team on Friday night. 

Pepiot has averaged 98 pitches across his past five starts and topped out at 130 innings last season. He’s already at 94 2/3 to start 2025, so I’m anticipating the heavy workload to begin taking its toll. The righty has been excellent, but his 3.04 ERA is below his 3.82 xFIP, and his 84.7% strand rate is likely to prove unsustainably high. Plus, he’s also surrendered a healthy 41.3% hard-hit rate. Additionally, Baltimore sports a middling .320 wOBA at Camden Yards and .318 mark against righties for the year, so this isn't a five-star matchup, either.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Brent Rooker ranks as the 14th-best hitter in the league.. Brent Rooker is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Extreme flyball hitters like Brent Rooker are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Will Warren.. Among every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the New York Yankees.. In the past week, Brent Rooker's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 14.2% up to 20%.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Judge ranks as the best batter in MLB.. Aaron Judge is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Extreme groundball bats like Aaron Judge are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Mitch Spence.. Aaron Judge will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.. Aaron Judge's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls in recent games (27.4° in the last 14 days) is quite a bit better than his 20.9° seasonal angle.

The Friars are set to begin a series with the Cincinnati Reds, and Machado is batting .321 on the road with eight homers. San Diego faces right-hander Nick Martinez, and Machado is 4-for-11 with three RBI against his former teammate. Machado has two bombs in his last six appearances, and five of his home runs are off right-handed pitchers. I’m eyeing him to keep up the success against Martinez tonight. 

The Padres have been underachieving at the plate but the top of their lineup is as good as anybody. They plate a run in the first inning in 34.2% of their road games — the sixth-highest number in the majors. They should be able to get to Reds starter Nick Martinez who has a 4.82 ERA with an OBA of .291 in eight starts at home. Cincy's offense has a run first inning rate of 35% at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park and San Diego's Dylan Cease has an ugly 6.26 ERA on the road.

The Guardians rank 25th in runs per game, 25th in average, 26th in slugging, and 22nd in home runs. They don’t get on base, nor do they hit for power with any consistency. What’s worse is their numbers are trending further downward. They have scored more than four runs just once since June 13, and their underlying metrics are putrid in this month.

Kyle Manzardo is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 85°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters.. Hitting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Kyle Manzardo will have the upper hand today.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Kyle Manzardo will hold that advantage today.

He’s 10-for-21 lifetime with three home runs off the Toronto Blue Jays starter. Additionally, every one of Duran’s bombs has been off right-handed hurlers, and he’s batting .294 at home. Expect Duran to make some noise in front of the Fenway faithful tonight. 

When estimating his batting average talent, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the best hitter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has made big gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 15.6% seasonal rate to 21.9% in the past two weeks' worth of games.. In the last week's worth of games, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s 26.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 13.2%.

Minnesota has eclipsed a total of 8.5 runs in seven of its last eight games, allowing 7.25 runs per contest through that span. The Tigers, meanwhile, own the fifth-best offense in the majors (5.00 runs per game) and have been even hotter over the last 15 days, averaging 6.25 runs per game.

Matt Wallner projects as the 10th-best home run batter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Matt Wallner is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 5th-hottest temperature on the slate today at 82°.. Matt Wallner will have the handedness advantage over Sawyer Gipson-Long in today's game.. Extreme groundball batters like Matt Wallner generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Sawyer Gipson-Long.

Castellanos is 3-for-6 lifetime against the right-hander, and the outfielder thrives at Citizens Bank Park, hitting .313 at home with six bombs. Most of Castellanos's power output is against righties as well, boasting seven long balls. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Marcell Ozuna is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-most humid conditions of all games today at 77%.. Among every team today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.. Marcell Ozuna will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Miguel Vargas ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Miguel Vargas is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 86°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for bats.. Extreme groundball batters like Miguel Vargas generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Landen Roupp.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 91st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Heliot Ramos is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 86°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for bats.. Heliot Ramos has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

The Mariners have scored one run across their last two games, and if they thought Minnesota pitching was tough, they are in for a treat when they take on Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi is poised to make his return from the IL, and all indications are he's ready to go deep. I expect him to dominate this M's lineup and for the Rangers to continue their high-scoring ways (11 runs over their last two games). 

Eovaldi is holding opponents to a .185 average entering tonight's matchup against the Seattle Mariners, and he has cashed the Under on his earned runs prop in seven consecutive appearances. He’s also very familiar with Seattle’s lineup, holding them to a .216 average across 111 at-bats. Back Eovaldi to shine at home in tonight's AL West showdown. 

The Cubs have kicked a mini-funk at the dish with 5.88 runs per over their past eight games, and the North Siders pace the majors with 5.76 runs per road game while ranking first in wOBA, ISO and OPS on the highway. Of course, the Chicago lineup has also done damage against left-handed pitchers this season with respective ranks of seventh in wOBA, fifth in ISO and sixth in OPS, and Houston southpaw Brandon Walter just served up seven earned runs across six innings to the Los Angeles Angels last time out.

Seiya Suzuki projects as the 19th-best hitter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Walter throws from, Seiya Suzuki will have the upper hand today.. Bats such as Seiya Suzuki with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brandon Walter who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.. Seiya Suzuki has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 11.5% rate last year to 19% this year.

Anticipating offense in a Kansas City Royals game is usually a foolhardy idea. They’re on a tremendous run to the Under, going below the total in 46 of their last 73 games. Part of the reason they enter this series on a five-game losing streak is that the lineup has been lost at the plate, scoring just four total runs in that span. All five games have gone Under the total. Dustin May gets the nod for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He has to be licking his chops against a Kansas City lineup ranking dead last in wRC+ (52) and wOBA (.250) against right-handed pitching in the last 15 days.

May has thrown at least five innings in all 14 starts this season and racked up at least four strikeouts 10 times. The consistent workload is the foundation for this nod, and the Royals ranking 28th in both wOBA and ISO against right-handed arms is the icing on the cake. While Kansas City boasting the second-lowest strikeout percentage against righties in the majors is a surface concern, we’re also landing a low total for May. He has traded at a 4.5 or 5.5 strikeout total in 13 of his 14 starts, and the last time he was all the way down at 3.5 was his first outing of the year on April 1.

The Rockies average just 2.98 runs per game on the road while batting .206. Expect another poor performance today against Jose Quintana and the Brewers. Quintana can find himself in trouble in the middle innings but he tends to start strong, pitching to a 1.50 ERA through the first three innings. The Rockies respond with lefty Kyle Freeland who has pitched to a solid 3.64 ERA in seven away starts. The Brewers are 24th in the majors in slugging (.378) while ranking 28th in run first inning percentage (23.5%)

When assessing his home run ability, Brenton Doyle ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for hitters.. Hitting from the opposite that Jose Quintana throws from, Brenton Doyle will have an edge today.. Brenton Doyle has big-time power (79th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (28.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jose Quintana doesn't generate many whiffs (17th percentile K%) — great news for Doyle.. Brenton Doyle hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

When estimating his BABIP ability, James Wood is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Hitting from the opposite that Jose Soriano throws from, James Wood will have an edge in today's matchup.. James Wood has made substantial improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 10.7% rate last season to 19.7% this year.. James Wood has made significant strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 19.7% seasonal rate to 29.4% in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Ward in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Taylor Ward is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Hitters such as Taylor Ward with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Jake Irvin who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Taylor Ward will hold that advantage in today's game.. Taylor Ward's launch angle this year (20.4°) is a considerable increase over his 17.3° mark last year.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ketel Marte ranks as the 10th-best batter in MLB.. Ketel Marte is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.. Ketel Marte will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.. In the past week's worth of games, Ketel Marte's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 16.4% up to 38.1%.. Ketel Marte's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved recently, rising from 16.4% on the season to 38.1% in the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eury Perez to throw 80 pitches in this game (4th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. With 7 bats who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Eury Perez will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's matchup.. Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Eury Perez (41.3% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 3 FB hitters in Arizona's projected batting order.. Eury Perez will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game.. As a team, Arizona Diamondbacks hitters have performed well when assessing hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (between 23° and 34°), ranking 6th-best in Major League Baseball.

This will be just the second big-league start for Misiorowski, and the Cubs have the eighth-lowest strikeout percentage against righties while also sporting a sixth-ranked wOBA and ISO. Make no mistake, Misiorowski has swing-and-miss stuff, but he also struggled with control and issued four free passes in his debut.

Tucker silenced any concerns about a lingering finger injury by going 3-for-4 at the dish with a run and a pair of doubles in the series opener against the Brewers on Tuesday. He’s up to a .383 wOBA, .225 ISO and .904 OPS against righties this season and faces Milwaukee rookie Jacob Misiorowski in just his second big-league start Wednesday night.