WNBA Picks

Minnesota’s edge over Atlanta is its team defense; they surrender the fewest points per game (73.6) and the fourth fewest made threes per game (7.4). Atlanta will test this elite Minnesota perimeter defense as they attempt 30+ triples per night. The Dream make 10 of those attempts on average, but landing that many or more won’t be easy against a formidable Minnesota stop unit.

Paige Bueckers is finding rhythm at the professional level as the Dallas Wings continue to find success. The team has won three of its last four games and covered in four of its last five. The Indiana Fever have lost three of its last four and covered only once in its last five games. Winning Friday’s matchup with the surging Wings won’t get any easier with Caitlin Clark out of action. The Fever are 2-4 straight up with Clark on the sideline this season. Over the last four games’ opposite trajectories, Indiana ranks ninth in offensive rating, 10th in defensive rating and 10th in net rating. Dallas ranks 11th in offensive rating, but the Wings have put the clamps on and rank second in defensive rating in that span.

This is a nice price for a Thomas double-double here. She’s finished with 10+ points in all 10 outings this season, and she’s a nightly threat to hit that mark in both assists and rebounds, too. Lately, it’s been Thomas’ playmaking — 10.6 APG through her last six matchups — that’s shone through.

Breanna Stewart has been rolling, so I have no problem going back to the well for another combo line. New York Liberty’s star forward posted a 23/10/3 line in her last game out, but her PRA total hasn’t risen at all from 31.5. There’s value to be had here. Stewart is averaging 21 points, 5.9 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game this season, good for 30.5 PRA. In five games without Jonquel Jones on the court, she’s posted 22 points, 7.6 rebounds and 4.2 assists, good for 33.8 PRA. Stewie’s points increased minimally with Jones out of action, but her rebounds and assists rose considerably. In the five games played without Jones this season, she hit the Over three times and finished with 30 and 31 PRA in the other two.

Angel Reese is averaging 11.9 rebounds per game on the season and in the month of June, she is averaging 13.0 rebounds per contest – minus one game where she only played 20 minutes. This matchup will provide plenty of rebounding opportunities for her. The Golden State Valkyries are the best rebounding team in the WNBA, but that is because of how many missed shots their games have. They rank next to last in the league in field goal percentage. The Valkyries still allow 34.1 rebounds per game to opponents – ranking eighth in the WNBA. Reese gets over a third of the team rebounds for the Sky, so she will be the one grabbing most of these misses on both ends of the court.

On the heels of 13.1 RPG in 2024, Reese continues to outwork opponents, sitting at the top of this year’s rebounding charts — and it’s not even close. It’s also worth noting that Kamilla Cardoso, Reese’s usual tag-team partner in the frontcourt, is away with the Brazilian national team. That should open the door for Chicago’s No. 5 to snag even more loose balls.