Pope Francis, the 88-year-old leader known for his push toward inclusion and equality within the Catholic Church, passed away on Easter Sunday after suffering a stroke that led to heart failure.
The Vatican confirmed his death, with Cardinal Kevin Farrell honoring the late pontiff as a champion of the poor and marginalized. A conclave took place this week to elect the 267th pope, and bookmakers quickly weighed in on who will lead the Church’s 1.4 billion followers. Cardinal Pietro Parolin was the early favorite at +250, followed by several other notable contenders.
New pope update
It took two days, but we now have a new pope. Plumes of white smoke emerged from the papal conclave in Vatican City on Thursday, signifying a candidate has secured the required two-thirds majority to succeed the late Pope Francis. And his identity is a bit of a shocker.
White smoke! The 133 Cardinal electors gathered in the Vatican’s Sistine Chapel have elected the new Pope. He will appear soon at the central window of St. Peter’s Basilica. pic.twitter.com/XejI7mY43m
— Vatican News (@VaticanNews) May 8, 2025
Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost from the United States has become the 267th Pope of the Catholic Church and will serve under the name Leo XIV. Prevost was not among the Top 5 favorites on most betting sites when the conclave began and had an implied probability of just 2% at Kalshi earlier on Thursday morning.
Born in Chicago in 1955, Prevost earned degrees in mathematics, divinity, and canon law, and began his religious career as a missionary in Peru, where he served in various leadership roles and eventually became a naturalized citizen. He rose through the ranks of the Augustinian order to become its global leader and was later appointed bishop of Chiclayo in Peru. His leadership and deep pastoral experience led Pope Francis to name him prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops in 2023, followed by his elevation to cardinal later that year.
Prevost’s election as pope marks a historic milestone, as he becomes the first American to lead the Catholic Church. Known for his diplomatic skill, administrative experience, and global perspective shaped by years of missionary work, Pope Leo XIV is expected to carry forward the reformist and inclusive vision championed by his predecessor, Pope Francis. His papacy is seen as a bridge between continents and cultures, reflecting the Church's increasingly global character and its ongoing efforts to address internal challenges while engaging with the modern world.
Habemus Papam! We have a Pope!
— Vatican News (@VaticanNews) May 8, 2025
The Cardinals gathered in the Vatican’s Sistine Chapel have elected Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost as the 267th Pope, who took the name Pope Leo XIV. pic.twitter.com/7COawsKvWu
🕊️ Next pope odds
| Candidate |  |
Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Pietro Parolin | +250 | 28.6% |
| Luis Antonio Tagle | +275 | 26.7% |
| Any other not listed | +375 | 21.1% |
| Pierbattista Pizzaballa | +500 | 16.7% |
| Matteo Zuppi | +750 | 11.8% |
| Péter Erdő | +1100 | 8.3% |
| Peter Turkson | +1600 | 5.9% |
| Fridolin Ambongo Besungu | +2000 | 4.8% |
| J.M. Aveline | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Robert Sarah | +2500 | 3.8% |
| Raymond Leo Burke | +4000 | 2.4% |
| Timothy Radcliffe | +5000 | 2% |
| Kevin Farrell | +6600 | 1.5% |
| Anders Arborelius | +10000 | 1% |
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction prior to Thursday afternoon.
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✝️ Early favorites to be the next pope
Cardinal Pietro Parolin (+250)
The 70-year-old Cardinal Parolin is essentially the Vatican’s top diplomat. Parolin has been the Pope’s right-hand man when it comes to dealing with governments and tricky international issues. He’s got a lot of experience and is known for being steady and practical. If the cardinals want someone who knows how to keep the Church running smoothly and handle delicate situations, which seems to be the case, Parolin is their man.
- Age: 70
- Birthplace: Schiavon, Veneto, Italy
- Title: Cardinal Secretary of State
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (+275)
The 67-year-old Cardinal Tagle is known for being warm, approachable, and good at connecting with his flock. He’s from the Philippines, where Catholicism is growing rapidly due in large part to the Cardinal's efforts. Tagle has also worked extensively on spreading the faith around the world. People like him because he focuses on kindness, inclusion, and getting along with other religions. He is often seen as someone who could continue to move the Church in the same compassionate, open direction that Pope Francis had been leading it.
- Age: 67
- Birthplace: Manila, Philippines
- Title: Pro-Prefect emeritus for the Section of First Evangelization of the Dicastery for Evangelization
Pierbattista Pizzaballa (+500)
Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem since 2020, is regarded as a compelling papal candidate due to his extensive experience in interfaith dialogue, pastoral care in conflict zones, and commitment to the Church's mission of reconciliation. A Franciscan friar fluent in Italian, Hebrew, and English, he has lived in the Holy Land since 1990, serving as Custos of the Holy Land and later as Apostolic Administrator of the Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem. His leadership during times of tension, including offering himself as a hostage during the Gaza conflict, demonstrates his courage and dedication to peace. Elevated to cardinal in 2023, Pizzaballa embodies the Church's call to universality and dialogue, making him a strong candidate to continue Pope Francis's legacy of outreach and compassion.
- Age: 60
- Birthplace: Cologno al Serio, Italy
- Title: Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (+750)
To many, Cardinal Zuppi is a small-town pastor at heart. It would not be a stretch to say that Zuppi shares many of the positive traits of the late former U.S. President Jimmy Carter. Zuppi has devoted considerable effort to peace efforts, including initiatives to help resolve conflicts worldwide, and is particularly focused on assisting migrants and other groups that are often overlooked. He was close to Pope Francis and is seen as someone who can bring people together and keep the Church caring about social issues. For those cardinals who want a leader who is both compassionate and a unifier, Zuppi fits the bill.
- Age: 69
- Birthplace: Rome, Italy
- Title: Archbishop of Bologna
Cardinal Péter Erdő (+1100)
Cardinal Erdő is more on the traditional side. He’s a skilled theologian and knowledgeable about Church law. He is respected for adhering to the core teachings of the Church and ensuring that things do not drift too far from tradition. If the cardinals want to maintain a more conservative and doctrinal focus, Erdő would probably be their choice.
- Age: 72
- Birthplace: Budapest, Hungary
- Title: Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest
Cardinal Peter Turkson (+1600)
Cardinal Peter Turkson is often considered a strong candidate for pope due to his significant global appeal, especially in Africa, where Catholicism is growing rapidly. As the former president of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace, Turkson has a deep understanding of social justice issues, particularly poverty, climate change, and global inequality. His leadership experience in the Vatican and his ability to address complex issues with pastoral care make him an ideal candidate to guide the Church through contemporary challenges.
- Age: 76
- Birthplace: Wassaw Nsuta, Gold Coast
- Title: Chancellor of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences
Cardinal Péter Erdő - SIPA IMAGES
🤖 AI prediction for the next pope
We turned to the enormous computing power of ChatGPT to find out who it thinks will succeed Pope Francis, and it confidently chose Péter Erdő within a matter of seconds, citing his theological expertise and philosophical leanings.
Take a look at ChatGPT's reasoning below:
Next pope prediction: Péter Erdő
Current odds: +1000
Implied probability: 9.1%
Strengths: Strong theological credentials, deep ties to Eastern Europe, and appeal to conservatives
Weaknesses: A perceived lack of global pastoral experience and limited visibility outside Europe
Erdő is a highly respected canon lawyer and theologian. He earned doctorates in both theology and canon law and has served as a professor and author on Church law. That makes him particularly attractive for a Church that might be looking to shore up doctrinal discipline and clarity after years of internal debate and reform under Pope Francis.
He's also from Hungary, which represents both Eastern Europe and a kind of geopolitical bridge between Western Europe and the increasingly influential Global South. The last few popes have come from Poland, Germany, Argentina, and Italy—but many believe it's time for more Eastern or non-Western representation.
Hungary is part of the post-communist world, which gives Erdő a unique lens on religious freedom, secularization, and cultural transformation. He’s seen as someone who understands the pressures the Church faces in secular and pluralistic societies.
Erdő is often seen as doctrinally conservative, but not divisive. This could appeal to cardinals who are looking for a stabilizing, centrist figure who can balance continuity and correction without sparking polarizing reactions.
If the conclave looks for someone who is:
- Theologically grounded ✅
- Geopolitically strategic ✅
- Doctrinally balanced ✅
- Not a radical departure from either Pope Benedict XVI or Pope Francis ✅
...then Péter Erdő is a very strong contender.
Will the next pope be from Italy?
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | +110 |
| No | -154 |
There have been approximately 217 Italian popes in the history of the Roman Catholic Church, out of a total of 266 recognized pontiffs. This number includes popes from various historical Italian states such as the Papal States, Republic of Venice, Kingdom of Naples, and others, prior to the unification of Italy in the 19th century. The dominance of Italian popes was especially pronounced from the Middle Ages through the early 20th century.
What will be the papal name of the next pope?
| Papal name of next pope | Odds |
|---|---|
| John | +350 |
| Any other name | +400 |
| Francis | +500 |
| John Paul | +600 |
| Benedict | +800 |
Popes choose a new name when they are elected as a symbolic gesture that reflects their new role and mission as the leader of the Catholic Church. This tradition started in the 6th century with Pope John II, who changed his birth name, Mercurius, because it was derived from a Roman god.
Read our next pope name odds for more in-depth analysis.
🗳️ How is a new pope chosen?
When a pope dies or resigns, the process of selecting a new one begins. Cardinals under the age of 80 gather in Rome for a conclave, where they are isolated from the outside world. They meet to discuss the needs of the Church before casting votes in secret.
Each cardinal writes down a name on a paper ballot, and a two-thirds majority is required for someone to be elected pope. If no one wins after several rounds, the process continues, with the ballots burned after each vote. White smoke indicates the election of a new pope, while black smoke means no decision has been made yet.
Once a new pope is elected, the senior cardinal asks him if he accepts the election. If he does, he chooses a papal name and is presented to the world with the announcement, "Habemus Papam!" ("We have a pope!").
Though there are often favorites, the process is unpredictable, and surprises are not uncommon.
What impacts next pope odds?
Betting odds for the next pope reflect a mix of observable factors, historical patterns, and insider speculation. Here are some key elements that shape a cardinal’s chances in the eyes of oddsmakers:
- Age: While there's no official age limit to become pope, recent history shows a preference for someone old enough to bring wisdom and gravitas, but young enough to serve a meaningful term. Candidates in their late 60s or early 70s often strike the ideal balance.
- Health: The physical and mental stamina required of a pope is immense. If a cardinal is known to have serious health issues, his odds drop significantly.
- Regional representation: There’s a growing expectation that the next pope may come from outside Europe. After centuries of European Popes, the election of Pope Francis from Argentina marked a shift. Africa and Asia, both regions where Catholicism is rapidly growing, are now considered strong possibilities.
- Church politics: A candidate’s theological stance—liberal, conservative, or somewhere in between—matters. So does their relationship with existing power structures within the Vatican. Cardinals seen as consensus-builders or capable reformers tend to perform better in the odds.
📈 Who will the next pope be?
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